Our approach / Research standards
A conclusion can be no broader
than the evidence behind it.
The research should let you follow the reasoning. What the document states, what the analyst calculates and what nobody has confirmed must stay distinguishable.
Evidence states
Three evidence states.
Explicit calculations.
The labels below follow the CIU-001 report. They describe the status of evidence, not a single universal score for a company.
Established
A primary record states the fact, contract term or reported amount. The document and its date travel with the finding.
Indicated
A company estimate, forecast or management description appears in the primary record but has not been independently measured.
Unverified
The reviewed evidence does not establish the proposition. Missing information does not become an accusation.
From a question to a defensible finding
Keep the record connected.
Begin with the primary record
Use financial statements, executed agreements, ownership filings, government records and court documents. Secondary research can point to a question; it does not replace the original.
Reconstruct before interpreting
Reconcile cash movements, debt balances and contract definitions. Keep periods, units, currencies and reported measures visible.
Try to disprove the conclusion
Test the strongest alternative explanation. Retain operating evidence, amendments, waivers and other facts that narrow an adverse claim.
Publish the limits
Name the missing record and the precise conclusion it prevents. Separate calculation inputs from observed results.
What this means in practice
Precision is part
of the conclusion.
Debt principal and carrying value answer different questions. Customer commitments and available cash answer different questions. A parent guarantee has a different scope from a subsidiary borrower’s name.
We also distinguish historical events from current states. A signed acknowledgment of a historical breach matters. So does the waiver of that breach. Neither fact, on its own, proves a live default at a later date.
Every report has its own cutoff, publication status and evidence boundary. CIU-001 uses financial statements through 30 June 2026 and a 15 October 2026 evidence cutoff. Its external legal review and company-response process were outstanding.
Interpreting the research
Read the label.
Then read the scope.
What does “established” mean?+
It means a primary record states the cited fact, term or reported amount. It does not independently certify every underlying business event. Calculations and scenarios are separate analytical constructions, with stated inputs and assumptions. The document date and scope still matter.
How are allegations handled?+
A complaint records an allegation. It does not establish a merits finding. We distinguish the existence of a legal proceeding from proof of the conduct alleged.
What happens when information is unavailable?+
We state the gap and the conclusion it prevents. A redacted term or inaccessible schedule is not assigned an invented value.
Can the conclusion change?+
Yes. An evidence-based assessment should change when new, relevant records resolve a gap or contradict the original interpretation. The report identifies the information that could change the answer.
Correspondence
Questions about
the published work?
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